A forecasted historic El Niño could lead to a warmer-than-average winter season for the Midwest, according to experts at the National Weather Service.
Winter 2026-27 Outlook
The NWS released its Winter 2026-27 Outlook on Oct. 15 in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The outlook indicates that above-normal temperatures are favored for the Naperville region from December through February, though Senior Meteorologist Brett Borchardt said the Midwest in general should not expect anything out of the ordinary.
“Warmer temperatures does not mean we’re going to be in the 60s and 70s in December or January or February. Our average temperatures, maybe they’re closer to the mid-30s versus the mid-20s,” Borchardt said.
Another factor that could keep winter temperatures in check, Borchardt said, is that the Midwest is unlikely to see effects from polar vortices. A polar vortex is a rotating area of cold air and low pressure, located in the North Pole, that can push its cold air southward as it expands.
“Over the course of a whole winter, if you have fewer of those Arctic intrusions, you tend to have a winter that’s characterized by warmer temperatures,” Borchardt said.
Precipitation predictions
The outlook also suggests precipitation levels will be close to average, even as data from previous strong El Niño events supports lower than normal season snowfall in the Midwest, the National Weather Service said.
But Borchardt said even with these predictions, periods of extreme cold or heavy snowfall are still possible, along with other weather events like thunderstorms
“So what we’re sort of telling folks is prepare for an average winter for us, prepare for snow, prepare for cold periods. It’s just not favored to be one of the worst winters on record,” he said.
Staying ahead of the cold
As winter approaches, Borchardt said sealing leaky areas in your home and doing annual tune-ups on furnaces are good prep work to do now before the cold weather hits.
And once the cold and snowy season does hit, the National Weather Service recommends keeping supplies like a scraper, shovel, and warm apparel like hats, boots and gloves in your vehicle in case of emergency.
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