Illinois’ Predicted Peak May Shift to Mid-June

Illinois predicted peak shift mid-June
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The latest models for Illinois show our state’s predicted peak in the coronavirus pandemic may shift from mid-May to mid-June.

New Metrics

The new metrics show that though the projected peak date seems to have shifted, this is a positive indicator of flattening the curve.

“A pushing out of our estimated ‘peak’ is a natural consequence of flattening the curve,” said Pritzker. “Pushing the peak down and therefore to a longer timeframe might not sound like good news to some, but I promise you, it is saving lives.”

The change in the peak prediction came about after adding more recent data into the model.

First Briefing From Home

Governor J.B. Pritzker announced this news today in his daily briefing, which was given today from his home. The governor, along with his staff, is now working from home as one of his staff members tested positive for coronavirus.

The governor and his other staff members have tested negative for the virus.

Northeast Region Lagging Slightly

Other new data released shows that three of the four regions are on track to meeting all of the Restore Illinois reopening requirements, to enable them to move on to Phase 3 after the required 28-day period.

The Northeast region, which includes Naperville, is the only one lagging, due to its positivity rate, which is a measure of the percentage of coronavirus test results that come back positive.

The Northeast positivity rate is currently at 22.3 percent, which is more than the 20 percent required to move into Phase 3. The rate must remain below 20 percent for a 14 day period, which means the Northeast region could still move to the next phase in line with the other three regions.

Currently the soonest any region could reach the next phase would be May 29.

Researchers Involved

These models were created by researchers from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Northwestern School of Medicine, the University of Chicago, the Chicago and Illinois Departments of Public Health (IDPH), and are managed by Civis Analytics.

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